Thursday, June 01, 2006
Thelma Drake Slips Some More
Oh my goodness. Howling Latina is just getting to be such a little prognosticator.
A little over a month ago, HL predicted that Rep. Thelma Drake would lose ground with each passing day; and sure enough, that's what's happening.
Charlie Cook of Cook Political Report via MyDD recently downgraded good ol' Thelma's chances of winning reelection against Phil Kellam from "Republican favored" to merely "leans Republican."
Yes, in spite of demographics, HL predicted the race in the 2nd District would go from "Republican favored" to "lean Republican" to "toss up" to "Democratic favored." The key, as Cook writes, is a "first-tier challenge[r] like Kellam.
[T]he situation has worsened considerably for the GOP: 36 of its seats are in play, and 11 of them are toss-ups. Democrats need to win just 42 percent of the Republican seats in play to reach the magic number of 218. An additional 18 Republican seats are rated "likely Republican," meaning they are potentially competitive. The consensus among veteran Republican campaign consultants, particularly pollsters, is that if the election were held today, their party would lose the House.
GOP pollsters, media consultants, and other operatives privately concede that the drumbeat of bad numbers coming in -- but not publicly released -- has become depressing and alarming. What most concerns GOP strategists is that these congressional polls may not fully capture the extent of their party's problems, because other polling shows that Republican voters are disillusioned about the Iraq war, the federal budget deficit, illegal immigration, port security, gasoline prices, the response to Hurricane Katrina, and so on -- and are showing less interest than Democrats in the November election.
And even if it's never upgraded to "Democratic favored," when Kellam wins in November, Virginia bloggers will be able to say, "We knew it all along."