Saturday, June 28, 2008

Obama's Poll Problems

Obama supporters love to tout the latest poll numbers that comport with their view that an Obama win is inevitable; the guy is electoral magic; can't touch him. Except...unless he attracts more of Hillary's supporters, he will lose in the fall. A careful read of poll numbers clearly confirm the howler's view.

To illustrate, explain and support, the howler refers to a recent CQ Politics article that writes Obama-favoring polls have oversampled Democratic voters.

Why the difference? Were the Newsweek and L.A. Times biased in favor of Obama? Do the Rasmussen and Gallup pollsters favor McCain? Or maybe the public is wildly changing its views, daily.


Richard Morin, a senior editor at the Pew Research Center [said in] an interview with CQ Politics...the discrepancy is probably a result of the Newsweek and L.A. Times/Bloomberg polls over-representing Democrats.

“When I look at those results, I know something is going on,” said Morin.

“The first place that I look when I see these discrepancies, I look for the percentage of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the sample. We know that the best predictor of how someone is going to vote is their party ID.

So much for favorable polling data.

In a political climate that favors Democrats by bunches, Obama is statistically tied with McSame. We know Obama likes to play with certain cards and stack the deck against his opponents. When quoting worthless quotes, it looks like Obama fans like to play with cards too; and nothing like stacking a Solitaire deck and shouting, yippee, I won!

Oh and by the bye, only 53 percent of Hillary supporters are backing Barky.

H/T Tennessee Guerilla Women.

You are making mountains out of molehills and chasing non existent windmills.
Polls change daily, period. Not to mention- I'd love to see the MOE and crosstabs on the claim that 53% of Clinton supporters are supporting Obama.

I don't give much credence to poll numbers 5 months out. Much can change during that time.

I understand your position and know that primaries can be divisive- however, HRC had a joint appearance with Obama yesterday and the rest of the party is looking towards November. You do not have to work FOR Obama- just think of the ramifications if McCain gets elected.

You claim to be a progressive- using sites such as Little Green Footballs, Larry Johnson, and sources such as the far right Catholic League makes me wonder.

I used to enjoy your posts- progressive, well thought out, and fair. Now, it doesnt seem like someone who is "spiritually connected" or a Democrat is writing here.
I was in the exact same spot 8 years ago, now I regret not doing what I could to help the nominee. I stood on the sidelines, wrote LTEs lambasting the nominee and used every opportunity to bash the nominee. Now I look back, in embarrasment and see how silly myself and many others were.
See, I worked for Bradley and literally thought that Gore was the "anti-christ". Now I look back and see how trivial and silly it was. Our staff was so proud that we didnt do anything for him- now, you bet we regret it. Al Gore would have been an amazing president and we are now suffering from this. Granted, we got knocked out early in the process but the feelings were the same.
So, the bottom line is IT's NOT worth it.
Follow HRC's lead and look to November. She was amazing yesterday and I look forward to seeing BOTH of them campaigning.
It takes time, but supporting the Democratic nominee is so much better than another Bush term.

Pax Christi
"It takes time, but supporting the Democratic nominee is so much better than another Bush term."

You clearly are an Obamabot and are NOT listening to why a significant percentage of Dems will NOT support Barky. He is UNACCEPTABLE - He is a CHICAGO MOB politician.

No, not all of us are so selfish - some of us put Country above party.

I am a yellow dog Democrat who has worked her ass of for the party for the past 20 years.
Yeah, I remember 1994- DO you????!?!?! Remember losing it all? I do.
Using names such as "Bot" and name calling only relegate you to the schoolyard of poor discourse. But then again, what can be expected from the Larry Johnson worshiping crowd.
I am a Democrat- a PROUD VIRGINIA DEMOCRAT who knows that we cannot afford John McCain- 100 years of war, more right wingers on the Supremes and more of the same.

Move on Typewriter and the other "pussywillows", HRC has- why can't you? So has Taylor Marsh.
Oh my proudva, your last post is filled with anger of the self loathing type.

Just 'cause you're a female and view yourself as a loyal Democrat doesn't mean you're right.

Just think of all those faithful GOPers who followed Dubya right into the abyss.

Obama is not the leader you think he is. You project your hopes into this empty suit when you could've had the real deal with Hillary.

How any woman could defend Obama in light of all his gyrations of late (the most recent dealing with female reproductive rights for the mentally ill) is truly beyond my simple understanding. Obama might be better than McSame but maybe he's not even that. At least with McSame, we'd get rid of the religious batwings for a while. With Obama, we won't even get that.
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