Monday, May 12, 2008
Hillary & Scots-Irish
But no more...
In a must-read post, Anglachel of Anglachel's Journal connects the dots and previews:
I will simply repeat what I've been saying for weeks now: Hillary = nominee = victory; Obama = nominee = defeat. Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to get to 2209 votes without super delegates, so it is up to the SDs to decide the fate of the party in this electoral cycle. The nominee isn't the person with the most at a certain point in time, it is the person who first hits 2209.And to underscore her point, Anglachel quotes Jim Webb, the junior senator from Virginia who dedicated an entire book on the subject of Scots-Irish:
As I see it, there is a serious power struggle going on within the party to retain control within the old guard Northern tier faction to prevent the rise of a border-state power center that looks to ally the Southwest (Hispanic) with swing state working class voters for a voting block not beholden to Teddy Kennedy & Co.
Kinna contradicts what Donna Brazille, Ted Kennedy and his ilk have been saying, don't it...? Might also explain why Jim Webb repeatedly refuses to join the Obamarama bandwagon and drink the deadly kool aid.
The Scots-Irish comprised a large percentage of Reagan Democrats, and contributed heavily to the "red state" votes that gave Mr. Bush the presidency in 2000. The areas with the highest Scots-Irish populations include New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, the
Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, northern Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, southern Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, and parts of California, particularly Bakersfield. The "factory belt," especially around Detroit, also has a strong Scots-Irish mix. ...
The Democrats lost their affinity with the Scots-Irish during the Civil Rights era, when -- because it was the dominant culture in the South -- its "redneck" idiosyncrasies provided an easy target during their shift toward minorities as the foundation of their national electoral strategy. Their long-term problem in having done so is twofold. First, it hampers their efforts to carry almost any Southern state. And second, the Scots-Irish culture has strong impact outside the South. This is especially strong in many battleground states. It is no accident that many political observers call the central region in Pennsylvania "Northern Alabama." Scots-Irish traditions play heavily in New Hampshire -- the only New England state that Mr. Bush carried in 2000. Large numbers of Scots-Irish settled in the southern regions of Ohio (called "Northern Kentucky"), Indiana and Illinois. They were among the principal groups to settle Missouri and Colorado. They migrated heavily to the industrial areas in Michigan, which is one reason that George Wallace, ran so strongly in that state in 1968 and 1972. ...
UPdate: Vote for Hillary on CNN.
McCain beats Obama decisively unless McCain picks the wrong VP and runs very weakly.
Hillary beats McCain. Not in Virginia, but nationally.
Webb Rallies Support with Obama