Friday, May 30, 2008
Hillary Picks Up Superdelegate
The Seattle Times reports that Eileen Macoll, vice chairwoman of the state Democratic Party made the surprising endorsement yesterday.
Any delegate worth their super status has to know that with Hillary as the Democratic presidential candidate, chances of a Dem win are 100 percent. With Obama, drops to 47.2 percent.
"I think Hillary Clinton would be the best commander in chief to get us out of this mess in Iraq," Macoll said.
Macoll said she was spurred to announce her endorsement by her reaction to Memorial Day.
"I just got very emotional this Memorial Day weekend," she said. "This war just makes me sick."
H/T Talk Left.
A predicter with a more proven track record than the "some guy with a blog" method is to monitor the various electronic exchanges such as the Iowa Electronic Market at the University of Iowa. These involve people wagering real money and they have been remarkably accurate in past elections. Because they involve actual profit and loss they are driven by reasoned analysis of what the participants actually think will happen. Not by what they hope will happen.
The most recent trade on the Rasmussen Market for Clinton being elected President was 7.0. The most recent contract for Obama being elected president traded at 56.6. McCain is trading at 38.2.
One can argue that Clinton or Edwards or Biden or Dodd or Kucinich or Mickey Mouse are more electable til the cows come home. It is a pointless exercise because they are not going to be our nominee.
If you are correct about Obama being unelectable and Clinton being a sure thing (an assertion I most certainly don't think is correct)then Sen. Clinton did us all a great disservice by running such an abysmal campaign and throwing away the nomination.