Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Obama's Faculty Lounge Spin
Earlier, Howling Latina wrote about the 20-point lead that Obama spin meisters keep saying was mostly wiped out, which of course is nothing but faculty lounge spin from Obama Central.
Eriposte of The Left Coast sheds more light on the subject with a postscript and helpful links:
Eriposte of The Left Coast sheds more light on the subject with a postscript and helpful links:
Also kudos to Pat Buchanan on "Morning Joe" for helping the howler come up with the headline. In analyzing the Chosen One's problem with blue collar workers, he dubbed Obama as "too much faculty lounge."I was going to mention this yesterday but never got around to it. The talking point about Sen. Clinton having dropped from a 20-point lead is nonsense - it is based on cherry picking one or two polls to spin the embarrassing loss in favor of Sen. Obama, who blew a huge and unprecedented amount on money on the
PA race and had numerous other things going in his favor. In fact, if you look at the list of PA polls at Pollster.com, the average Clinton lead was roughly ~10% in February, ~12% in March and ~7% in April. I just noticed Jerome Armstrong wrote about the same aspect - using a different poll or polls source - yesterday. At least you can be happy that I didn't pick the PPP poll that had Sen. Obama leading by 3% and use that to claim that he should therefore withdraw from the race after yesterday's result.
// posted by Howling Latina @ 9:04 PM 
Comments:
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You are right, and the leaked spreadsheet from February would seem to indicate that Obama's own campaign knew they could get this close back in early February. In fact, that spreadsheet has pretty closely predicted the entire race so far...
Bottom line, all Clinton's PA victory does is get her a temporary boost in fund-raising from people who doubted she could even get a 9.2% win in the keystone state. It also means that the race goes on, which was expected already.
She will do astoundingly well in Kentucky, very well in West Virginia, and probably squeek out narrow victories in Puerto Rico and Indiana (though both could also go Obama narrowly, or Clinton in a big way). He will probably do very well in North Carolina, Montana, South Dakota, Oregon, and Guam. They effectively balance out for the rest of the race, both of them getting closer and closer to the magic number.
The simple truth is that she cannot make the magic number unless something very strange and dramatic happens. It is also unlikely, though still possible, for him to make the magic number without super delegates.
If the supers break 2/3 for her and 1/3 for him, he will win outright on June 1st or June 3rd. If they do not, it goes to the convention....
However, at the convention:
Obama will have more delegates
Obama will have more money
Obama will have more popular votes
Obama will have more states
Obama will have the momentum
Just pointing out facts and reasonable, educated guesses...
I love your blog (though wish it was not a blogger one, commenting is too difficult). I look forward to reading it more regularly once the nomination is over.
Bottom line, all Clinton's PA victory does is get her a temporary boost in fund-raising from people who doubted she could even get a 9.2% win in the keystone state. It also means that the race goes on, which was expected already.
She will do astoundingly well in Kentucky, very well in West Virginia, and probably squeek out narrow victories in Puerto Rico and Indiana (though both could also go Obama narrowly, or Clinton in a big way). He will probably do very well in North Carolina, Montana, South Dakota, Oregon, and Guam. They effectively balance out for the rest of the race, both of them getting closer and closer to the magic number.
The simple truth is that she cannot make the magic number unless something very strange and dramatic happens. It is also unlikely, though still possible, for him to make the magic number without super delegates.
If the supers break 2/3 for her and 1/3 for him, he will win outright on June 1st or June 3rd. If they do not, it goes to the convention....
However, at the convention:
Obama will have more delegates
Obama will have more money
Obama will have more popular votes
Obama will have more states
Obama will have the momentum
Just pointing out facts and reasonable, educated guesses...
I love your blog (though wish it was not a blogger one, commenting is too difficult). I look forward to reading it more regularly once the nomination is over.
Hey! Wow!
You're using our band logo!
Illegally!
As a "communications industry" person (I am myself), I am sure you know that is a copyright violation.
You need to cease and desist immediately, or our attorney will be contacting you!
Thanks!
You're using our band logo!
Illegally!
As a "communications industry" person (I am myself), I am sure you know that is a copyright violation.
You need to cease and desist immediately, or our attorney will be contacting you!
Thanks!
I don't want to get into a p@#$ing match here, truly. My concerns stem from a couple of issues.
Fair use has four areas to consider: purpose, nature, amount and effect.
One, you give no credit to the original author. That piece was drawn by a starving artist friend and it would be nice to give recognition for his work. Not its purpose; kinda goes against fair use.
Two, you have taken it out of its original context as a band logo, and used it in the "faculty lounge" poitical sense that seems to be so hip these days. Different nature from what the author intended; kinda goes against fair use.
Three, you have used all of it; in other words, the whole amount. Kinda goes against fair use.
Plus, you have made it accessible on the web, AND it will see repeated and long-term use, not a "one-time" shot. Kinda goes against fair use.
Hmmm ... purpose, nature, amount and effect; four out of four ain't bad ... kinda goes against fair use.
Jus' sayin' ...
Oh, BTW, I'm a HUGE Obama supporter; we have played all of his Iowa gigs, AND, you have a pretty good blog here.
Peace.
Fair use has four areas to consider: purpose, nature, amount and effect.
One, you give no credit to the original author. That piece was drawn by a starving artist friend and it would be nice to give recognition for his work. Not its purpose; kinda goes against fair use.
Two, you have taken it out of its original context as a band logo, and used it in the "faculty lounge" poitical sense that seems to be so hip these days. Different nature from what the author intended; kinda goes against fair use.
Three, you have used all of it; in other words, the whole amount. Kinda goes against fair use.
Plus, you have made it accessible on the web, AND it will see repeated and long-term use, not a "one-time" shot. Kinda goes against fair use.
Hmmm ... purpose, nature, amount and effect; four out of four ain't bad ... kinda goes against fair use.
Jus' sayin' ...
Oh, BTW, I'm a HUGE Obama supporter; we have played all of his Iowa gigs, AND, you have a pretty good blog here.
Peace.
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