Sunday, July 16, 2006

Not So Fast, Let's Rejoice in the Moment

The Virginian-Pilot ran a self-directed Webb-Allen poll. Howling Latina often blogs at The Virginia Progressive and directed readers to the poll in a post.

As of the wee-morning hours on Saturday, Allen was leading by 7 points. As of midnight the same day, Webb was leading by 7 points.

More than a few commentators dismissed the poll as essentially meaningless. But...not so fast, folks. Let's rejoice in the moment!

Now, the reason HL found the poll interesting is that in the early morning hours, the poll likely reflected where Webb and Allen stood in the numbers game. The poll was barely a few hours old, with little, if any time for Democrats to fire up interest and direct people to the poll; the votes mirrored the over-all numbers in a random sample of Web site visitors.

Interestingly, Mosquito from the comment section wrote that as of 9:15 a.m., Webb led Allen by 7 percent, exactly where Webb stood at the end of the day, which can only mean one thing, Webb supporters showed up.

And...isn't it just as likely that Webb supporters who are more energized will remain more energized and show up in November?

Yes, HL knows some people vote in every election as their civic duty by party line, even if they don't know a damn thing about the issues; and a computer savvy sample hardly represents the over-all population.

But still, the poll is a very favorable sign; for nearly 24-hours, Jim Webb held a 7 percent lead over Allen, and Allen just might have to spend another $1.7 million to further burnish his image.

One final thought on the poll: the number of participants as of midnight was 1262. During the last week of various polls by The Virginian-Pilot, the Senate race garnered the most votes. The gamut ran from NASCAR to border duty by the National Guard.

It's early July, but Virginians are paying attention.

brilliant logic! boy, i can't poke any holes in that!

in fact, i used the very same reasoning to discover that harry potter will in fact NOT die in j.k. rowling's next book. take a look at the online poll at! the results speak for themselves! game over!
Yep, it was all over for Tim Kaine, too!
indeed! brilliant point!

the elections are exactly the same - especially since webb is campaigning even harder and raising even more money than tim kaine did! phew!

Are you Dems so desperate for good news that you point to an online poll? [Snicker]
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