Thursday, May 25, 2006
Republicans in 2006 Look Like The Democrats of 1994
Republicans in the 2006 election cycle look like the Democrats of 1994 who lost the House and Senate, according to an article in today's Roll Call.
And to learn about the political climate in 1994, Howling Latina took a troll down memory lane and here's what Charlie Cook of Roll Call was saying back in May 2004.
As Democrats try to regroup from the losses of long-held seats in two back-to-back Congressional special elections, many of them are busy trying to figure out what happened and what it will mean in November.Looks like Democratic candidates were losing special elections in Kentucky and Oklahoma, kinna like GOPers in '06 if Democratic Francine Busby should win in the 50th district in California.
In the article, Roll Call zeroes in on Rep. Charley Taylor's race in North Carolina's 11th district and writes:
In fact, Roll Call has been busy of late forecasting stormy weather for Republicans, which Terry, Cindy and Katrina clouds from last year helped form atmospheric pressure and gale wind forces of the Kenny, Dukester, Scooter, Shooter and Karl variety.
The best evidence that the national GOP meltdown is affecting individual Republicans may well be North Carolina's 11th district, where Taylor is facing Democratic challenger Heath Shuler.
As Bush's numbers have fallen and the generic ballot has turned in favor of the Democrats in the district, Taylor's numbers have also dripped. I'm betting that's not a coincidence.
In February of this year, Anzalone Liszt Research polling showed Taylor holding a 47 percent to 40 percent lead over Shuler. Three months later, in a May 9-13 survey, the Democrat reversed that, pulling ahead (albeit narrowly) by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin. During the same time period, Taylor's 46 percent "re-elect" score in February dropped to 42 percent in May.
John Anzalone, president of the well-respected and often quoted polling firm of Anzalone Liszt Research, believes, "It's all about the environment, not the challenger...Every Congressional poll that we have done for months has been good for Democrats and bad for Republican incumbents."
"Now, merely because of the environment, Democratic candidates can be at 10 percent in name ID and still be sitting in the mid-30s in [ballot tests]. That's a huge difference from past years."