Saturday, May 10, 2008

New Math = Electability

After every vote is counted, Democratic party leaders will gather the children of Israel and anoint their party candidate.

Who will it be? The candidate with the most pledged delegates? The candidate with the lead in total popular vote, including, excluding Michigan and/or Florida???

Bringiton of Corrente proposes that it will be none of the above. "They will base their conclusion on one factor and one only; which of the two candidates is best equipped to beat John McCain." And it's not who holds the national lead but who can win a majority of electoral votes.

Now after Hillary blows Obama in West Virginia by an even wider margin that he won by in North Carolina, the supers may want to carefully and scrupulously study the new math. Clinton currently leads the swing state of WV by 38 points!

Here's are two little graphics that perfectly summarize the answer: If Democrats want to win in November, "Clinton must be the Democratic candidate." The odds are long that Obama wins over McCain and the odds are certain that Hillary wins.

So y' think Pelosi, Dean and Reid wanna win in November...? Like CNN notes with a story on WV, Obama might've taken his winning stroll a little early...

Update: Oops, hold up that coronation, Barky. The Los Angeles Times echoes what Hillary supporters have been saying all along.

Well, you may want to start working to make Obama more electable, because he's probably going to be the nominee.

Tearing him down may feel good if you are a Hillary supporter, but he's going to be the nominee and if you hand the election to John McCain you'll have to live with the consequences along with the rest of us.

Be very careful what you wish for.
Hilary will probably have won more registered Democratic voters by the end of the primaries, even without Florida and Michigan. Throw in Florida and Michigan, she'll probably have more overall votes as well.

Obama will be a weak candidate in November. He clearly can't handle any criticism at all. He's crying like a baby already, with even the minuscule criticism from the Clinton camp.

What's he's seen up to now is nothing compared to the onslaught he'll see when the Republicans go after him.

In contrast, Clinton's been attacked for years, and knows how to weather the storm.

The superdelegates better think hard, before giving the nomination to such a weak candidate as Obama. He's a lousy candidate, and he'd be an even worse leader if he happened to get elected.

Economic Populist Forum
Never mind the clear fallacy you're committing here (wins in primary states = wins in the general election), this seems to boil down to an old addage black parents are fond of telling their children:

"If you're black, you have to work twice as hard for all of the results."

Senator Obama went from almost nothing a year and a half ago, to the most vibrant and formidable grassroots political operation either party has ever seen. Over the course of six months, he has successfully taken down the figurehead of the Democratic Party establishment. Senator Clinton, if you remember, began this race with every possible institutional advantage, and the rules themselves seemed to guarantee a Clinton win.

But yet, a combination of poor planning, misplaced loyalty and mismanagement landed Senator Clinton in the second place spot.

So, now, Obama has more states, more delegates, more superdelegates, and more donors. He's energized the Democratic Party in unprecedented ways, and he seems to be something of a teflon candidate. A month of serious criticism did nothing to damage his chances in North Carolina, and he almost came out to beat Clinton in Indiana.

Remember this, despite a media pile-on, and facing Clinton in a state that favors her, he still gave her a run for her money.

Now, you may think that Obama is unelectable in November. I disagree, but reasonable people can disagree about these things. But please don't insult our intelligence by moving the goal posts every time it become more apparent that Senator Clinton has lost.
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