Thursday, August 03, 2006

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Predictions

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball predictions are out; and it doesn't look too warm and snugly for Republicans or the White House.

Sabato now thinks Democrats should easily be able to pick up 14-15 seats in the House; and picking up six seats in the Senate is no longer a long, long shot.

[T]o be certain, the 2006 midterm election cycle promises to feature the most strongly anti-incumbent mood since 1994, a fact Republicans might argue cuts both ways, though the Crystal Ball maintains it will disproportionately debilitate the ruling party. Furthermore, Democrats will have the advantage of a more angry and motivated base to boost turnout. Just how fired up is the liberal Democratic base this year, you ask? Fired up enough to practice guilt by association on its own party's moderates!
Pucker up, my buttercups...happy days will soon be here again.

[A] fresh look at aggregations of individual candidates' funds following second quarter fundraising reports reveals that Democrats are performing even better on a local, district-by-district basis, at least in the battle for the House.


Democrats are proving their monetary mettle in many more GOP-held districts this year.

Moreover, Crystal Ball reports that Rasmussen and other polls for Republican senators do not bode too well for their future prospects. Sens. Mike DeWine of Ohio, Jim Talent of Missoui, Conrad Burns of Montano, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and good ol' Rick Santurum all trail their Democratic opponent.

Folks, Democrats in Virginia need to work their tail off to win the sixth seat for the Dems; and of course, there's always Nevada, where Jack Carter is catching fire against Sen. John Ensign; or Tennesee where Ford will make a credible run in an open seat.

Forget your gentlemen's agreement with Ensign, Sen. Harry Reid; it's payback time for former Majority Leader Tom Daschle.

"Pucker up, my buttercups...happy days will soon be here again."

Haha - nope. If we win in November, we will have two more bitter years of struggle with a dig-in-the-heels Bush administration before we can move forward.

If we don't win in November, we will have two more bitter years of struggle within the party.

This election just lets us know whether we'll be fighting each other or fighting Republicans.

That's a pretty useful heads up.
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