Saturday, June 03, 2006

Why Webb Will Likely Win

About those pesky Survey USA poll numbers of a week ago or so and the recent Miller endorsement by the Washington Post, Howling Latina would like to add one more notion as to what the poll numbers mean; and why they bode well for Webb in the Democratic primary on June 13. And then a word of caution about the Post endorsement.

In a survey by WBDJ-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington, DC, 470 registered voters were asked about Democratic Senate candidates James Webb and Harris Miller on May 26.

Within a 4.6 percent margin of error, the survey indicates that 11 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Webb; only 7 percent had a favorable opinion of Miller.

Miller's negative were also higher. Twenty-one percent of respondents had an unfavorable impression of Miller; only 19 percent had an unfavorable impression of Webb.

Finally, 36 percent of voters were unfamiliar with both Webb and Miller.

Thus, the 4 percent Webb edge is evenly split between folks who are familiar with both candidates and like Webb better, and voters who don't necessarily dislike Miller but just like Webb best.

HL hopes the people who are unfamiliar with the issues and the candidates stay home; likely, this will be the case. But my two biggest fears are the GOP wild card of open primaries, and the recent Washington Post endorsement.

After the Post recommendation, Webb supporters are going to have to work that much harder in Northern Virginia; particularly to win voters who blindly pull the lever for any candidate the once formidable and progressive newspaper endorses.

Back in the 1980s, HL recalls the Post endorsement of former Republican Rep. Connie Morella of Maryland. She was behind in the polls to Stewart Bainum Jr., but eked out a victory after the Post endorsed her.

Hell, HL was one of the Democratic voters who helped Morella win.

This race will be close, but I see Webb pulling it off.

Webb -- 52%
Miller -- 47%
Other -- 1%
Hopefully a lot of people will read the Post endorsement and will do the reverse of their recommendation.

Although the Post is well-respected, lots of people don't support offshoring of jobs, guest worker programs, and globalization. So when they read this endorsement, they will disagree with the reasoning behind it and form an opposite opinion of who the best candidate truly is.
Let us not also forget how loyal the Post has been to Bush's War in Iraq.
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